Pakistan Wheat Policy 2025–26

Introduction

Wheat is Pakistan’s staple food and the crop that most directly shapes household budgets and farm incomes. Because it anchors daily diets and the national food system, any policy change immediately shows up in the way people talk about wheat prices in Pakistan and how they trade in ghalla mandis. On Oct. 19–20, 2025, the federal cabinet approved the Wheat Policy 2025–26. The policy restores a support/procurement price of Rs3,500 per 40kg, removes restrictions on inter-provincial movement, and outlines a plan to build strategic reserves so that wheat flour markets stay supplied. Stable upstream supply also helps the retail shelf for whole wheat bread, multi grain flour, and even niche buck wheat products.

This article explains why wheat matters in Pakistan’s economy and diet, unpacks the 2025–26 policy (support price, reserves, and movement rules), reviews the post-flood commodity backdrop, maps likely benefits and risks, summarizes implications for farmers, millers, traders and consumers, and lists the signals to track through the 2026 harvest. It follows best-practice sourcing, with news and data links to official reporting and sector analysis.

Why wheat matters in Pakistan

Wheat is the base calorie for most households and the largest winter (Rabi) crop by area. International monitoring shows why steady policy matters. FAO’s GIEWS reports that the 2025 wheat harvest finished in June with official production around 29 million tonnes, about 5% above the five-year average—a strong number that still leaves little room for shocks when demand runs close to supply.

Policy has oscillated over the past two seasons. Public buying was scaled back during 2024–25 to reduce fiscal exposure and encourage private trade. Then came fresh floods and a visible spike in the gandum price. In October 2025, the centre re-introduced a national floor price (Rs3,500/40kg), confirmed unrestricted inter-provincial movement, and signalled stock building to manage seasonal tightness—an explicit attempt to stabilise the market while keeping domestic pricing aligned with import parity.

The floods changed the conversation for two reasons. First, damage to on-farm stocks and transport links raised near-term prices. Second, the planting calendar for the next crop is tight; delays now lower yields later. A late-September Reuters polling round noted that flood damage in Punjab was severe enough to raise food-inflation risk and alter monetary-policy expectations, a reminder that wheat shocks ripple through the wider economy.

Pakistan has alternated between heavy state involvement through administered prices, large procurement, controlled movement, and periods of deregulation. The 2025–26 policy lands between the two: a credible floor, a defined reserve target, and market integration via free movement. That blend aims to protect farmer incentives without suppressing private trade or creating regional shortages.

Key Features of the Wheat Policy 2025–26

Support/procurement price (news-source backlinks)

The federal government set the support/procurement price at Rs3,500 per 40kg. This is described as an import-parity-aligned floor to ensure competitive public buying while giving farmers a predictable baseline before sowing.

Strategic reserves & procurement volume

Alongside the floor price, authorities will build strategic reserves to lean against price spikes. Press briefings and official summaries indicate a combined federal/provincial target of roughly 6.2 million tonnes to be procured from the 2025–26 harvest for this purpose. The reserve is intended for timely market releases to mills, not to crowd out private traders.

Inter-provincial movement & market regulation

The cabinet decision removes all restrictions on the inter-provincial movement of wheat and flour. Earlier permit regimes had created frictions and widened provincial price gaps, especially for mills in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Free movement improves price discovery, cuts logistics costs, and helps align deficit and surplus zones.

Stakeholder consultation & aims

The current policy commentary talks about three aims: 1. Fair returns for farmers (via the floor price), 2. Consumer protection (via stock releases to moderate retail prices)3. National food security (via reserves and market integration).

They also underline the need for transparent input support, better seed, and reliable access to markets—issues that sit behind the policy but determine its results on the ground.

Implications and Challenges

Potential benefits

A clearer planting signal. The Rs3,500/40kg floor lowers downside price risk for farmers during the growing season for wheat, supports input planning, and should stabilise sown area after uncertainty in the previous season. With floods damaging on-farm stocks, the floor provides liquidity confidence for the Rabi cycle.

Integrated markets. Free inter-provincial movement reduces administrative bottlenecks and arbitrage wedges between provinces, improving supply to deficit regions and limiting regional price spikes.

Stock discipline. A 6.2-MMT target adds credibility to price-stabilisation releases if retail flour costs surge. Clear release calendars also help mills plan procurement and working capital.

Governance cadence. Weekly oversight meetings (with provinces represented) create a decision rhythm for releases, movement bottlenecks, and (if needed) import timing—critical in a market where weeks of delay matter.

Key challenges & risks

Cost–price gap. Grower groups in higher-cost districts argue Rs3,500 may lag full costs (diesel, DAP, urea, labour). If the floor sits below actual costs, farmers may under-apply inputs, limiting yield even if the area holds steady. Editorial commentary has urged that support prices account for realistic costs and that subsidies be delivered transparently.

Flood aftershocks and logistics. Localised stock losses and road damage can keep prices elevated in early 2026 if reserve releases are slow or silo capacity is tight. Reuters’ flood-impact polling highlights the macro-inflation risk that follows.

Storage quality and leakage. Large public stocks strain quality control; poor handling reduces effective reserves and undermines releases. This is a known weak point, flagged in policy assessments focused on post-harvest systems.

Import timing risk. Open import windows too early and MSP is undermined; open too late and flour prices overshoot. September’s CAP push for imports versus the government’s hold-the-line stance shows how finely balanced this lever is and why weekly oversight must remain data-driven.

Budget limits. Procurement and release programs are cash-intensive. Pension reform pressures and revenue targets can cap procurement below plan, slowing releases just when they are needed most.

What This Means for Key Stakeholders

Farmers

For growers, the price floor reduces downside risk and sustains credit confidence for seeds and fertiliser. Free movement widens marketing options across provinces and reduces the chance of local gluts. In Sindh, the Rs58bn package (cash plus DAP and urea) is timed to the Rabi calendar and aims to keep the sowing window intact. Watch for: (a) availability of gunny bags and smooth procurement at centres, (b) payment speed, and (c) the spread between MSP and private-trade mandi rates as harvesting approaches.

Flour millers

For mills, three variables matter: (1) the pace and price of public releases from reserves, (2) inter-provincial logistics now that movement is free, and (3) import parity if global offers (including US wheat) become competitive later in the season. Clearer rules lower the risk of stoppages and help mills maintain steady output of wheat flour, whole wheat bread, and multi grain flour products.

Traders and logistics providers

Permits and check-posts created friction in earlier months. Free movement should reduce transaction costs, shorten delivery times into deficit zones, and compress the spread between mandi and retail quotes. Traders must still watch quality assurance and warehouse receipts to avoid losses.

Consumers

If procurement and releases stay on schedule, retail volatility should ease by late Q1-2026. Households that track the 40 kg wheat price in Pakistan today should see fewer sudden jumps as reserve releases lean against spikes. A steadier market also helps bakers and brands maintain consistent pricing for whole wheat bread and related products.

Conclusion

The Pakistan wheat policy 2025–26 puts three stabilisers back into the system: a clear price floor (Rs3,500/40kg), a strategic reserve plan (~6.2 MMT), and unrestricted inter-provincial movement. The design is pragmatic. It gives farmers a credible floor before sowing, restores nationwide market integration so mills can source grain where it is available, and provides a stock cushion to lean against price spikes in retail flour. The hard part is execution: procurement financing, quality storage, fast releases, and clean logistics. If these are managed well—and if provincial complements like Sindh’s Rs58bn package reach small farmers on time—the 2026 lean months can pass without another wheat shock. If not, the system will flash warnings in plain view: widening provincial price gaps, renewed calls for imports, and persistent volatility in today's wheat price in Pakistan and wheat flour shelves. The framework is sound; delivery will decide results.